Roseyland

Hey look! I got tagged for a meme! I’m totally one of the cool kids now. Onedadlife and Underthearch tagged me for the “Six Unspectacular Things About Me” meme. I’m a little hurt by the assertion that anything about me is unspectacular, but whatever, I’ll get over it. Let’s begin.

1. My Addiction

Every morning, I go to my neighborhood Starbucks and get a grande coffee. I’d order something fancier like a pumpkin spice latte, but there are a lot of calories in those things, and I try not to drink my calories. I’m a little freaked out by the way the Starbucks employees remember my name and order, but I guess they are trained to do that. Also, the manager of this Starbucks is hot. She’s this cute blond and she wears this black belt with those metal pyramid shaped stud things. It says, “I’m a nice girl, but I have a wild side”. That’s hot. I hope she doesn’t find this blog, that would be embarrassing.

2. My Car

I’m not really a car guy. To me a car is a practical necessity and nothing else. I love my car though. It’s a 2003 Honda Accord Coupe. Woah! The excitement is blowing you away isn’t it? Hey, it’s reliable, gets decent mileage, and I have it set up so that I can listen to my iPod through the stereo system and control it with the steering wheel controls. This makes me happy.

3. My Cat

I’m a cat person. I always have been. I like dogs, but cats are better. They are sleek and somewhat mysterious. Dog’s are easy, they love you no matter what you do. Cat’s are more complicated, they require a little seduction. Also, pound for pound, a cat could kick a dog’s ass any day. My cat’s name is Earl. You might be wondering why he is wearing a scarf and standing next to a purse. He has some gender identity issues, he’s my cat though, and I love him no matter who he is.

4. My Church

This is hard for me to admit, but I’ve gone to church nearly every Sunday since February. Please don’t think that I’m religious, I’m not. Spiritual?, maybe. Here’s my thing. I don’t believe that any religion is the literal truth or that any religion is completely right or wrong. That being said, I also don’t believe that life is just energy and matter interacting, and I believe that there is a deeper level of reality beyond what we can observe. I like my church a lot. It is a United Methodist church in the city with a fairly traditional worship, but the music is better and there is communion with real wine. They don’t require you to believe anything, and it is an open and affirming church (that means gay people are welcome). If you want, you can find out more here.

5. My Underwear

I wear boxer briefs. I think that all guys should. I wore tighty whities for an embarrassingly long time. They are gross and should be outlawed. Boxers provide way too much freedom though. I like things to be a little more secure down there.

6. My Fraternity

I was in a fraternity in college. This is my fraternity at our final blackball meeting during my senior year of college (Spring 1999). To this day, I can’t believe that I was in a fraternity. I’m so not the frat boy type. That being said, it was the time of my life. I love these guys and I would do anything for them. Next weekend, I’ll be back at my college for homecoming and my fraternities 125th anniversary. A lot of guys will be back. It should be a blast. I’ll probably blog about it.

Okay, there you have it. All six unspectacular things about me. It’s a good thing that it wasn’t 7 unspectacular things, because I don’t think I have 7. I’m supposed to tag other people now or something, but I’m not in the mood, and I’m not sure that there is anybody left who reads this blog and hasn’t already been tagged. If you haven’t done this meme yet, do it, do it now. Also, leave a comment so that I know to go read it.

Do you know what one of my favorite things in the world is? No you don’t, let me tell you. Probability. Once upon a time, I was a math major, and probability was my favorite class. I even tutored this Japanese guy in probability. Come to think of it, I think he failed. Oh well, can’t win ‘em all. For a while, I considered being an actuary. These are the people who spend all day analyzing risk for insurance companies. It would have been hours and hours of endless fun, but I figured I would get more chicks as an engineer. My current job involves a lot of thinking. It’s hard to describe, but there are lots of algorithms to develop, test, and have meetings about. I love my job, but sometimes I worry that all the thinking will make my head explode, so I take short breaks every now and then. What do I do to refresh on these short breaks? Sample problems from the actuarial exam! I am not making this up.

You can learn how to become an actuary at the be an actuary website, and you can find the sample test here and solutions here. Let’s do a sample problem together. It will be fun, I promise. Here is a question from the test:

A tour operator has a bus that can accommodate 20 tourists. The operator knows that tourists may not show up, so he sells 21 tickets. The probability that an individual tourist will not show up is 0.02, independent of all other tourists. Each ticket costs $50, and is non-refundable if a tourist fails to show up. If a tourist shows up and a seat is not available, the tour operator has to pay $100 (ticket cost + $50 penalty) to the tourist. What is the expected revenue of the tour operator?

Break into small groups and discuss this problem. Be prepared to present your solution at the end of this blog post. If you know anything about probability, this is a pretty easy problem to solve. If not, it isn’t so easy. That’s the great thing about probability. It seems hard, but is actually not hard. This is useful for looking smarter than you are.

Let’s solve the problem. I know that the expected value of any situation is the sum of each value multiplied by the probability of that value occurring. First I would like to know the probability of all 21 tourist showing up. This is easy, it’s 0.98²¹, which is about 0.65. This is because you can find the probability of multiple independent events occurring by multiplying the probability of those events together. So there is a 98% chance of any random tourist showing up, and a 65% chance of all 21 tourist who bought tickets showing up. This first time I did this, I calculated the probability as 0.02²¹, which would be the probability of all tourist not showing up. It took me like 2 minutes to figure out what I had done wrong. I’m so dumb.

Now we need to know the probability of 20 or less tourist showing up. We could calculate the probability of every combination of less than 20 tourist showing up and then sum all the probabilities, but that is a lot of work. We know that the sum of the probabilities of all possibilities is 1, and if 21 tourist don’t show up, then 20 or less must have shown up. So the probability of 20 or less tourist showing up is 1-.65, which is .35. So there is a 35% chance that 20 or less tourist will show up.

If 21 tourist show up, the tour operator takes in $950 (21 x $50 is $1050 minus a $100 penalty is $950). If 20 or less tourist show up, the tour operator will take in $1050, because nobody gets a refund. So the expected revenue of the tour operator is 0.65 x $950 + 0.35 x $1050, which is $985. So on average, the tour operator will take in $985 per tour. Do you see a problem here? You should. If the tour operator only sold 20 tickets, he would never have to pay a penalty, and would take in $1000 per tour, which is an average of $15 more per tour. Not only that, he wouldn’t have to ruin some poor tourist’s vacation. What a dumb ass.

Now for a couple editorial comments. There are no such thing as independent events. When somebody says, “assuming independent events”, 90% of the time it is a bad assumption. Think about the problem we just discussed. What are the odds that just one tourist won’t show up? Not likely, because most people don’t go on vacation by themselves, so it is significantly more likely that a group of tourist won’t show. Not only that, if all the tourist show up, one tourist is going to have to miss the tour while the rest of his or her group goes on the tour. I can’t stress this enough, tour operator = jerk. The assumption of independence only works for trivial problems, and real life problems are rarely trivial. Unfortunately, you often have to pretend that events are independent, because doing otherwise is too hard and beyond the scope of this blog.

Another complaint, this whole problem assumes that the tour always sells out. (It must be awesome!) This assumption should really be stated in the problem. Do you hear me actuarial exam problem making people? Also, I assume that this is another bad assumption. As fun as probability is, it is often one bad assumption after another. Probability = life.

Okay, if you are still reading, you must leave a comment. There is something seriously wrong with you, and I will find you help.

The image in this post is Einstein Was Wrong by _mpd_ and is licensed under Creative Commons.

I have a case of the oranges. What are the oranges? They are kind of like the blues, but not so much sad, more blah. I call them them the oranges, because I get them on Sunday evenings in the Fall, and orange is the color of Fall. Fall is my least favorite season. I know, I know, this is blasphemy to many of you. You want to say something like: “I love the Fall, the days get shorter, it’s starts to cool down at night, you can start wearing sweaters, football is on TV, and you can have chili for dinner”. I do like chili, but still, I’m not into Fall. In many cultures the seasons represent the cycle of life, and Fall is the season of dying. Okay, I have no idea if that is true or not, but it seems true, and really, isn’t that enough? Here is a list of things I don’t like about Fall:

• Shorter days - I’m a night owl, and I love warm summer evenings. When it gets dark so early and it’s cold outside, I feel stuck indoors. I feel like my day is over before I even get home.

• Sweaters and Long Sleeved Shirts - I have disproportionately long arms for my height (5′11”). I love the look of sweaters, but they don’t fit me. If I raise my arms at all, the sleeves end up working their way half way up my forearms, and then I spend the whole day playing with my sleeves. It’s so annoying.

• The Changing Colors of Leaves - I’m going to get hate mail for this, I know it. See the picture above? Most people think it is beautiful, and it is beautiful in a way, but what I see is dead decaying leaves. I like my leaves bright green and vibrant thank you.

There are things I do like about Fall, like the start of new TV shows, Husker football, and people bringing Halloween candy to work that I am forced to eat against my will. The thing is, I’m a person who loves new beginnings, and Fall is the season of old endings. I love to start new projects and try new things. I’m not a big fan of endings. Fall is like completing a big project or finishing a good book, sure there is the sense of accomplishment, but then you are left with a “Eh, What do I do now?” feeling.

This isn’t a very happy post is it? I’m sorry. Really, I’m a very happy guy. Let me try to end on a positive note. I’m a big believer in balance, Yin and Yang, and all that crap. I absolutely love Spring. It is the best season by far. In order for spring to be so great, the opposite of spring must exist, which is Fall. So Fall isn’t a bad season, it’s just a “temporary seasonal adjustment” that must occur so that we can experience the joys of spring in a few months? I’m not anti-fall, I’m pro-spring.

The image in this post is Fall River Bend by Jim’s Outside Photos, and is licensed under Creative Commons.

If you read this post, you know that I have a thing for collegiate a cappella music. I have been playing with the genius sidebar in iTunes, and I’ve discovered another love. Acoustic music. I like it for all the same reasons that I like a cappella music. It’s not as shinny and polished, but somehow that makes it more “real”. It’s less filtered. It has more texture and intimacy.

Here is some of my favorite acoustic music so far, and luckily, I found YouTube videos! Enjoy!

“Push” by Rob Thomas

“Mr. Brightside” by The Killers

“Richard Manuel is Dead” by Counting Crows

“Only One” by Yellowcard

Here is a better video, but all you can really hear is the audience singing along.

“Stuck in a Moment” by U2

I’m coming to the realization that I like music that expresses emotion. I think that is what makes this music so good. With less “production” between you and the artist, you can feel it more, and connect with it more. Does this mean I have emotions? Maybe even an artistic side? God I hope not, that would horrible. I mean, I’m an engineer, I have a reputation to uphold. It’s late, I think I’m getting a little loopy.

In other news, I’m pretty sure I’m going to the St. Louis Interactive Conference this Saturday. I’m totally freaking out about meeting real bloggers in real life. It should be an adventure though, so maybe I’ll see you there.

So I’ve had a new kitchen for over a month now and I figured that I should cook something. Something that requires more than the microwave. Also, I have this work thing that requires me to bring food. I have a love/hate relationship with those work things that require bringing food. On one hand there is lots of free tasty food, and on the other there is the requirement to bring food. I like cooking though. Mostly I like watching The Food Channel, but real life cooking is fun too. I love taking raw ingredients and turning them into some completely new and hopefully delicious. I also like algorithms, and recipes are algorithms. Today we are making oatmeal fudge bars, the ingredients are:

• 2 cups brown sugar
• 3/4 cup + 2 tablespoons butter
• 2 eggs
• 4 teaspoons vanilla extract
• 2 and 1/2 cups biscuit mix
• 3 cups oatmeal
• One 12 ounce bag of semi-sweet chocolate chips
• One 14 ounce can of sweetened condensed milk
• 1/2 teaspoon salt

Here are the ingredients as they would appear if they were sitting on the counter in my kitchen.

First, mix the brown sugar, 3/4 cup butter, eggs, and 2 teaspoons of vanilla extract. This goes better if you let the butter soften up first. In a separate bowl, mix together the biscuit mix and oatmeal. Then stir the oatmeal mixture into the eggs and sugar mixture. Do not try to mix everything together all at once. If you do, the oatmeal might soak up the vanilla extract and prevent it from being properly distributed. Don’t do it. This is what is should look like when you are done.

A little diversion here. This is what my workspace looks like when I am cooking. Note that I have one mixing bowl just for trash and a plate for setting things on. This is as messy as I get. I do not like messes. I am just a tad anal. This is odd, because I’m not a clean freak, just a neat freak. Go figure.

Now press approximately two thirds of the oatmeal mixture into the bottom of a greased 9 x 13 inch pan. This will be the base of the bars, and it should look like this.

Now for the fudge. Add the chocolate chips, condensed milk, 2 tablespoons butter, and salt to a sauce pan and heat over low heat. I had to use medium low heat, just don’t get too hot, or you will burn the chocolate. Stir continuously until the chips are melted and the mixture is smooth. Then stir in 2 teaspoons of vanilla extract. You could also stir in 1 cup of chopped walnuts at this point, but I have deep philosophical objections to nuts in my dessert food.

Now spread the chocolate on top of the oatmeal in the 9 x 13 inch pan. You need to be a little quick here, because as the chocolate cools, it becomes less spreadable. This is what it should look like.

Now crumble the remaining oatmeal mixture on top of the chocolate. Like so.

Bake at 350 degrees for 20-30 minutes. When the oatmeal turns golden brown, they are done. Mine took 25 minutes give or take 17 seconds. See the picture below? This is why I don’t cook more often. Just looking at a picture of a mess like this gives me anxiety. I had this all cleaned up with everything washed, dried, and put away before the oatmeal fudge bars were finished baking.

Here is what they looked like when I took them out of the oven.

This is what they look like if you cut into them while they are still warm. They are fricken delicious at this point. It’s like some type of warm chocolate fudge cobbler.

You have to let them cool for a couple hours before you can cut them into bar form. This is what a cooled oatmeal fudge bar looks like.

This is one of my favorite recipes ever. In fact, I resist making them, because I know that I will eat far to many of them. The pictures make it look like there is much more oatmeal than fudge, but it is a good mixture, I promise. The chocolate stays gooey and it is very sweet. So sweet that by itself it would be too much, but the oatmeal balances it all out. Okay, that is all. Soon I will be baking pumpkin cookies. You will love them too, unless you don’t like pumpkin, then less love.

I’ve been thinking about politics a lot lately. I don’t know why, it must have been something I saw on TV or heard on the radio. Oh wait, that’s right, it the ONLY thing I’ve seen on TV or heard on the radio lately. I love politics though. I once heard John McCain say that politics is a collegiate sport. He was so right. I get the same feeling watching the conventions and debates as I do watching Husker football. This is going to be a messy blog post, because my political identity is a complicated and messy thing. Here is the short version:

I am supporting Barack Obama for President of the Unites States, because to do otherwise would go against every fiber of my being.

That pretty much sums it up. They rest of this blog post is going to be me trying to document the evolution of my political identity over time. I don’t recommend reading any more of this post, it might drive you insane. Still here? Alright, here we go…

Jimmy Carter was the President when I was born. I don’t remember anything about Jimmy Carter, in fact the only real memories I have of Jimmy Carter are from Clinton’s presidency. I do remember Ronald Regan though. Ronald Regan was my hero. I lived in the United States, he was President of the United States, and therefore I loved him. It was weird, because for the first 11 years of my life, Ronald Regan was the only President I had known. I knew there had been other Presidents, but in my mind, Ronald Regan was THE President of the United States.

I don’t remember much about the 1984 elections. I remember that Walter Mondale had chosen a female running mate, but as far as I was concerned, Ronald Regan was the President, and therefore there was no need to have a silly election. I also remember Mary Lou Retton at the 1984 Olympics. In fact, when I think of the 1984 elections, I almost instantly think of Mary Lou Retton. Weird, but true.

I do remember the 1988 elections. What I remember most is that I did not like Michael Dukakis. It was bad enough that Regan wasn’t going to be President anymore. Why on earth would we want anyone other than Regan’s Vice President to be President? I remember that I was on a baseball trip with my Dad, and we were in Boston to see the Red Sox play. As we were walking through Boston, I made the comment “I hope we don’t run in to Dukakis” many times. I seriously thought it was possible that we would run into Dukakis, and he would be all like “Wanna have lunch”, and I would refuse that invitation, because he was not Regan’s Vice President and therefore he was not my friend.

The 1992 elections were the first elections that I really paid any serious attention too. You know, beyond deciding who was my friend and who wasn’t. At first, I was all for George Bush. I remember that my Grandma was mad at George Bush because of the high crime rate in D.C. This seemed utterly rediculous to me, because well, it was utterly rediculous. In response, I took to chanting “Vote for Bush, Vote for Bush” whenever my Grandma was around. Somewhere out there is a VHS videotape of me chanting “Vote for Bush”. If you find it, please destroy it. Not long after this, I started to pay attention to what the candidates were saying, and I decided that Bush wasn’t my man. Okay, here comes one of the most painful and embarrassing things for me to admit: If I could have voted in 1992, I would have voted for Ross Perot. Why? He had pie charts. I f***ing love pie charts. Someday I will write a blog post containing a bunch of charts that I have made throughout my life, and you will love it. Graphical representations of information for the win baby! Woooooo!

Moving on…

I voted for the first time in 1996, and I voted for Bill Clinton. At this point I was a pretty solid democrat. I was in college at the time, and one of my fraternity brothers was a big republican, he was president of the college republicans and I think he even went to the republican national convention that year. It was fun arguing politics with him. Today he is a gay man living in Chicago with his partner. It’s always the conservatives.

In 2000, I voted for Al Gore. George Bush was far too socially conservative for my taste. I also remember being disappointed that the republicans didn’t nominate John McCain. To me, the fact that the republican party nominated someone like George Bush over someone like John McCain speaks volumes about the priorities and mentality of the republican party. At the time I was still okay with George Bush. I knew we didn’t see eye to eye on many issues, but I figured that he would still be a good president. I was totally wrong about that.

The 2004 elections were a little difficult for me. I felt like you had two choices, you could be a Michael Moore democrat or you believed that George Bush was second only to Jesus. I wasn’t feeling either one of these options, but ultimately, I was much more comfortable with John Kerry than I was with George Bush, so I voted for Kerry.

Which brings us to today, 2008, and the election between Barack Obama and Sarah Palin. Who is Palin’s running mate again? Oh yeah, John McCain. I admit that I have great respect for John McCain, and deep down inside, I think we see eye to eye on many issues. Unfortunately, John McCain is on the wrong team, and his pick of Sarah Palin as his running mate makes this abundantly clear. The fact of the matter is, a vote for John McCain isn’t just a vote for John McCain, it is also a vote for the republican party and a vote for Sarah Palin. This is not a vote I am willing to make.

I am a big fan of Barack Obama. I wasn’t completely sold on Obama at first, but he had me with his “A More Perfect Union” speech. After 8 years of Bush, it would be nice to have an articulate President. A President that looks at reality as it is and tries to find the best path forward, rather than a President who adheres to an ideology in spite of reality. So I guess it’s pretty obvious by now, I’m voting for Barack Obama in 2008.

When I started this post, I wanted to try and describe my political identity, but it’s hard. On the surface, I have always voted democrat, but I don’t consider myself a democrat as much as I consider myself a non-republican. When I think of the republicans, this is what I think of:

• The Religious Right
• Irrational Homophobia and Related Policies
• Abstinence Only Sex Education
• Anti Stem Cell Research Policies
• Fear Based Politics
• The Whole Terri Schiavo Thing
• A lot of other stuff that just seems completely nuts to me

I realize that there is a lot more to the republican party than the issues above, but the republicans lack of judgment on social issues makes me question their judgment in every other area. To me, the republicans seem to be a party of ideology first, everything else second. This isn’t to say that the republican ideology is always wrong, it’s just that they never stop to think about whether or not it is right or wrong.

Regardless of what I just said about the republicans, I don’t feel liberal. On social issues, I am fairly liberal, but in other areas there are times when a conservative approach is better, and there are times when a liberal approach is better. I like balance. There are many issues that I disagree with the democrats on, but ultimately the democratic party is a more balanced and rational party than the republican party, and until that changes, I will be voting democrat.