Roseyland

100 Things

A lot of blogger have lists of 100 things about themselves, or 100 things they want to do before they die, or 100 things that fit into some category. This is my list of 100 things. These things don’t have a theme, they are just the first 100 things that popped into my head. Maybe this gives some insight into my subconscious or maybe it’s all random. You decide

1. Cats
2. Dogs
3. Rain
4. Monsoon
5. India
6. Taj Mahal
7. London
8. Big Ben
9. Grizzly Bears
10. Tigers
11. Magicians
12. Las Vegas
13. Southwest Airlines
14. Peanuts
15. Leather
16. Cars
17. Highway 40
18. Bikes
19. Trees
20. Birds
21. Fireplaces
22. Smokestacks
23. Power Plants
24. Submarines
25. Russia
26. Sean Connery
27. James Bond
28. Aston Martin
29. Castles
30. Eiffel Tower
31. Trains
32. Subways
33. Lakes
34. TV
35. Tivo
36. DVDs
37. Movies
38. Popcorn
39. Sugar Daddies
40. Mixer
41. Cupcakes
42. Fiber
43. Protein
44. Carbs
45. Amino Acids
46. Organic Chemistry
47. Calculus
48. Art History
49. Term Papers
50. College
51. Beer
52. Wine
53. Hermann, MO
54. Norton Grapes
55. California
56. Nebraska
57. Corn Huskers
58. Barns
59. Horses
60. Cows
61. Manure
62. Perfume
63. Love
64. Death
65. Democracy
66. Fashion
67. Eddie Bauer
68. Jeans
69. Shoes
70. Belts
71. Arms
72. Legs
73. Toes
74. Rings
75. Books
76. Fantasy
77. Reality
78. Simulations
79. Airplanes
80. Guns
81. Bullets
82. Silver
83. Gold
84. Frankincense
85. Myrrh
86. Jesus
87. Buddha
88. Mohammed
89. Boxing
90. Ultimate Fighting
91. Disney World
92. Tower of Terror
93. Roller Coasters
94. Thunderstorms
95. Tornados
96. Oz
97. Rubies
98. Diamonds
99. Africa
100. Blood

Okay, for the record, I ended on “Blood” because “Africa” and “Diamonds” had me thinking of the movie Blood Diamond with Leonardo DiCaprio. Which is a great movie. You should go watch it. But before you do that, what did you think of my list? Does it reveal anything about me?

November 13th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | About Me | 2 comments

Wordless Wednesday

November 12th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | Wordless Wednesday | no comments

Pumpkin Cookies

Today I am going share with you one of my favorite recipes. Pumpkin cookies. I pretty much love pumpkin anything, but these cookies are the best pumpkin food I know. I’ve heard that pumpkin doesn’t actually have much taste, and that what most people think is pumpkin is really just the spices. Whatever, it still taste good. Here are the ingredients:

• 1 cup butter
• 1 cup dark brown sugar
• 1 cup sugar
• 2 eggs
• 1 teaspoon salt
• 1 teaspoon baking powder
• 1/2 teaspoon ground ginger
• 1/4 teaspoon ground cloves
• 1 teaspoon ground cinnamon
• 1 teaspoon vanilla extract
• 1 teaspoon baking soda
• 3 cups flour
• 1 15-ounce can pumpkin

Here are the ingredients in graphical form. The wine isn’t an ingredient, I just find that it helps the cooking process go a little smoother. In case you are wondering, the wine is a Chambourcin from the Stone Hill Winery in Hermann, Missouri. I thought the wine was great, but I know nothing about wine. Also, note the new KitchenAid mixer. The mixer is my Christmas present from my Mom and Stepdad. They are coming St. Louis for Thanksgiving, so we are doing Christmas then. They had the mixer sent directly to me, and my Mom told me not to open the package until Thanksgiving. Sure thing Mom.

First step: cream together the butter and sugars. This goes much better if you let the butter soften up first.

This is a picture of the first time I have ever used a mixer. Actually, this is the second time. The first time I didn’t realize that the mixing bowl needed to be locked into place. The mixer was so mad at me that it nearly threw the bowl of butter and sugar across the room, which in turn sent the cat running for his life and knocking over my neatly stacked spices in the process. This is why I drink wine when I cook.

Once the butter and sugar are combined, add the eggs and vanilla extract. Then combine the dry ingredients and add them to the mixture. When you are done, it should look something like this.

Now add the can of pumpkin and let the mixer do its thing. If you wanted to, you could also add some chopped walnuts at this stage. Again, I have deep seated political and religious objections to nuts in my dessert food, so we won’t be adding walnuts today. When you are done, it will look like the picture below. The batter is wetter than most cookie batters, and it is delicious. Of course it does contain raw eggs, but if that scares you away, you shouldn’t be cooking anything.

Drop the batter by the spoonful onto a cookie sheet. Then bake at 350 degrees for 10 to 11 minutes. The cookies below are probably a little too big, but I like big cookies.

The difficult part about baking these cookies is that it is hard to know when they are done. They come out as a soft cookie, which is great, but the whole toothpick test just doesn’t work on them. The toothpick doesn’t come out clean unless the cookies are well over cooked. Do you see the wispy tips on top of the cookie? When those tips just start to turn golden brown, the cookies are done. You can also break one open and see if it looks like a cookie on the inside. Then eat the broken cookie so that nobody knows you broke it.

Be careful with the cookies when you remove them from the cookie sheet. They are soft and smoosh easily. Note the color of the bottom of the cookie below. If it was any darker than this, I would consider the cookie over cooked, and I am the pumpkin cookie professional here.

Here is a picture of the cookies on a plate. I have this new recipe software for organizing my recipes, and you can include a picture with each recipe. It’s so cool. I had to take this picture to put in the program. Now that I look at it, I probably should have used a flash. Oh well.

I like these cookies plain, but you can also frost them with a Maple Butter Cream Frosting. You can download a pdf version of this recipe along with the Maple Butter Cream Frosting recipe here. Did you know a Mac can print pretty much anything to a .pdf file? Nice. Let me know if you make these cookies, they are perfect for Thanksgiving. Oh, and one more thing. Sometimes the tops of these cookies become a little sticky after a day or so. It’s kind of like the cookie part of an ice cream sandwich and the way it can stick to your fingers a little. These cookies can do the same thing. No big deal, I just thought I should mention it.

November 9th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | Good Eats | no comments

It Feels So Good

Flickr : Barack Obama

I told myself that I wasn’t going to blog about politics anymore, but this isn’t about politics, it’s about history. There is so much that I want to say, I don’t even know where to begin. I’m going to do this list style, because if I try and write it all out in paragraphs, it will just be one big stream of consciousness mess.

• Tuesday night was the most amazing night ever. I’m not sure I will ever experience anything like it again. I consider myself a fairly moderate guy, but I don’t like George W. Bush at all. I am embarrassed to have him as my president. I also can’t stand the political style of today’s republican party. The fear mongering, the smear campaigns, the ideological bullshit… I find it all deeply offensive. Barack Obama is the polar opposite of all of the crazy in the last 8 years. To see such an impressive candidate elected, who has eloquence, style, and intellect, and who just happens to be the first black president… It’s overwhelming. Completely and totally overwhelming.
• I took the day off and volunteered to canvass in north St. Louis county on Tuesday to help get out the vote for Obama. I was a little apprehensive about it. I had never volunteered for a political campaign before, and the idea of going door to door didn’t really appeal to me. I knew this election was important though, and I knew that just voting for Obama wasn’t enough. When I heard that north St. Louis county needed volunteers, I decided to give it a shot. It turned out to be a great experience. The neighborhoods I was in were strong Obama neighborhoods. Some people even honked and cheered for me. I don’t know if we really made much of a difference, but it made the day much more meaningful to me, and that was well worth the effort. Also, I walked for nearly 8 hours, and 3 days later, my legs are still a little sore.
• As much as I want to brag about the fact that I took a day off and canvassed for Obama, I am humbled by volunteers like Jaelithe (and countless others) who have been volunteering for months and have given hours and hours of their time to help elect Obama. The entire world owes them a big thank you. Seriously. Thank You.
• Going to the huge Obama rally under the arch and canvassing on election day were great experiences for me. I spend most of my life surrounded by fairly conservative republicans. I went to college in Nebraska and I work in fairly conservative industry. Don’t get me wrong, I love Nebraska and I love my coworkers, but it’s nice to be around other people that, for the most part, see things the way I do. I regret not volunteering more for Obama, maybe in 4 years. All of this has me thinking that I should look for something to volunteer for now. It doesn’t have to be political, but it would be nice if it was related to democratic causes. Any ideas?
• As great as election day was, there were still some disappointments. Missouri is still red, albeit barely red. California passed prop 8. Why can’t we just get over the whole gay thing? 86% of Missouri voted to make english the official language. 86%, seriously? And worst of all, apparently the rest of St. Louis county does not love the MetroLink nearly as much as I do. Whoever voted against the MetroLink funding is hear by forbidden from complaining about gas prices.
• I almost want to apologize for posting something so political. I do tend to be liberal, especially on social issues, but ultimately I believe the optimal solution to any issue is a balance between liberal and conservative principals. My issues with the Republican party are not so much issues with conservatism as they are with the style of conservatism embraced by today’s Republicans. I sincerely hope that one outcome of this election is a better republican party. A few republicans are suggesting that it was a mistake for their party to nominate a moderate like John McCain and that they should have stood stronger behind Sarah Palin. I think this is way off target. If you are a republican, you can be conservative without pandering to the extreme elements of your party, and you can be conservative without resorting to the politics of fear. You can be conservative without being crazy. For the love of our country, please do so.

Okay, enough politics. I have a new empire red KitchenAid mixer! and I’m going to make pumpkin cookies this weekend! and I’m going to blog about it! Are you excited?!? You should be.

November 8th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | Politics | one comment

Deep Questions

I like to ponder deep questions. Not often, but sometimes. Usually my deepest thoughts are things like: what should I watch on Tivo tonight?, do I make something to eat or go out?, and how can I make the cat just a little more insane? Occasionally though, I go deep. This is often coffee induced. When I drink coffee, I get all philosophical, and when that happens, these are questions I ponder.

1. Why is there something instead of nothing?

This is a variant of the “why is the universe so finely tuned for the existence of life?” question. I prefer this version though, because it cuts to the point. We could ask whether or not we live in one of an infinite number of parallel universes, or we could ask whether or not some god designed our universe, but these questions miss the point. Why does anything exist at all? If God created everything, why does God exist? If we live in one of many parallel universes, why do all these parallel universes exist? Why are we here?

2. Why am I alive right now?

At first this seems like a stupid question. I mean if you weren’t alive right now, you wouldn’t be around to ask silly philosophical questions. But seriously, why are you alive right now? The time span of your life is minuscule compared to all of time, isn’t it odd that you just happen to be here right now? I know some people will say that it is only possible to be conscious of a time in which you are alive, but wouldn’t that mean from your perspective you are always conscious? That’s weird.

3. Why am I me?

Why are you you? I think we tend to believe that who we are is just random chance, but doesn’t that mean we are pretty lucky? I certainly don’t have the perfect life, but considering all the people in this world, I’d rather be me that most. 80% of the world’s population lives in a third world country. Lucky for me, I’m in the other 20%. Not only that, I’m college educated, I have a good job, I seem to be healthy, my family is relatively normal. All in all, I’m very fortunate, but why am I so fortunate. Further more, why am I human. Isn’t it also possible that I could have been a cat, or a horse, or an elephant? There are far more animals in this world than humans, why did I luck out and get to be human?, and a fortunate human at that.

So these are my coffee induced deep thoughts. Do you know the answers to any of these questions? Seriously, if you do, leave a comment. I know that ultimately these questions can’t be answered, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t fun to think about. If nothing else, they point out just how much of reality is completely unknown, and that helps keep everything in perspective.

October 27th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | Spirituality | one comment

The Obama Rally

Hello, this is the post where I blog about the same thing that everybody else has already blogged about. I would have posted this sooner, but I went out and bought one of the new MacBooks. I’ve been spending all my time importing stuff from my PC to the MacBook. I might blog about the whole switching to Mac thing someday, but not today. I will say that my MacBook is pretty, and I do like pretty. Also, this is the first blog post I have written on the MacBook, and the first post I have written on my couch in my living room. Let me know if you can tell the difference.

Why am I here again? Oh yeah, I went to the Obama Rally on Saturday. It was amazing. You can see me in the picture above. I am the guy in the dark gray jacket, 117 rows from the top, 65 people from the right. I think it’s one of the better pictures of me.

I debated for a long time whether or not to go to the rally. I had never been to a political rally before, and I didn’t really have anybody to go with. Still, I knew that I liked Obama, and I knew that this could be a historic event. So I got up early on Saturday and drove to the nearest MetroLink station. The MetroLink station wasn’t too crowded, but there were Obama supporters there already. There was an elderly couple, a group of women, and a young family. The young family had a young daughter that kept asking questions about Obama. That was cute. The train wasn’t too crowded when I got on, but within two stations it was, and by the time we made it downtown, it was packed. After I got off the train, I started walking towards the end of the line, it was a LONG line.

After standing in line, I didn’t think I was going to get in. Once the area close to the stage was full though, they let everyone in without going through security, and that made the line move a lot faster. I ended up at the top of the hill, not a bad view once I knew where to look. This is what I saw. I wish you could see the arch in the picture. It was awesome to look up and see the huge arch above a huge crowd of people.

The next picture is Obama right after coming on stage. He is wearing a white shirt and is below and to the left of the spotlights.

This is a cropped version of the picture above. It’s easier to see Obama this way.

This is the picture above zoomed in on Obama. I had to do this, so that I would know that I was actually looking at Obama, and that I even managed to take a picture of him.

Hey look, even Jesus supports Obama. I love taking pictures of slightly crazy religious people. Although to be fair, this guy seemed pretty nice. Right behind him were other protesters with pictures of aborted fetuses. I prefer patriotic Jesus dude.

This is a picture of people leaving the rally with the arch in the background.

Here is the line of people waiting to get back on the MetroLink. I hung out downtown for few hours hoping that the MetroLink would clear up, it didn’t work. If you look close, there is a guy playing the saxophone. I love street musicians.

The picture below is Laclede’s Landing a hour or so after the rally. Downtown was filled with Obama supporters long after the rally was over. It was cool. The energy just kind of hung around.

I’m so glad that I went to the rally. It is definitely something I will remember for a long time. It’s hard for me to put into words what the atmosphere was like. What I remember most is the people. It was an incredibly diverse group, different races, religions, sexual orientation, style of dress, etc.. They were all there. For some reason, I feel a million times more comfortable in a diverse group people. This does not really make sense, because I’m just your average boring straight white guy. I think it’s mostly because I’m a pretty independent guy. It’s important for me to feel free to be my own person. When everybody around me is the same, I feel pressured to conform or something. This is also why I like to shop at the Target in the city.

I knew that I was going to vote for Obama long before this rally, so it’s not like it swayed my vote or anything. I will say that I feel more invested in this election now. Before the rally, I wanted Barack Obama to win, but it was just a personal thing. Now I want Obama to win for all of the people in that crowd. While I like Obama a lot, to many people in that crowd, Obama means more than I can imagine. Now I want this election for them. I agree with Colin Powell. Obama is a transformational figure. He is electrifying. He definitely has style, but he also has the depth and substance to back it up. You don’t see that often in this life, I hope we don’t miss out on the opportunity to see it for the next four years.

Here is my Flickr set from the rally.

October 23rd, 2008 Posted by Rosey | Politics | one comment

The Contents Of My Kitchen

I wanted to blog about my trip back to college last weekend, but there are several pictures I need to organize, and I ended up watching a lot of college football yesterday, and I just haven’t had time yet. If you want, you can see the pictures in my Flickr set here. There is a lot I want to say about those pictures, so hopefully by next weekend I’ll have a post up.

Today I’m going to do something I’ve wanted to do for a long time. I’m going to show you the contents of my kitchen. I seem to blog about my kitchen a lot, but your kitchen says a lot about you. And I know you want to know more about me. Why wouldn’t you? I’m fascinating. I took these picture right after grocery shopping, so this is about as full as my kitchen gets. You can click on any of the pictures in this post to see a larger version. The first picture is the inside of my refrigerator. Yeah, you probably figured that out didn’t you?

So much food, where do I begin? In the freezer there are a few lean cuisines. This is what I eat when I’m lazy and desperate. Below that are Spinach Munchies and a few related items. I have to thank CosmosGirl for introducing me to Spinach Munchies in her blog. They are like pizza rolls filled with spinach and some type of cheese. I also like the Broccoli Cheese Munchies. Below the munchies are frozen vegetables. I’m trying to eat more vegetables, but those vegetables have been in my freezer for a few months. Do frozen vegetables ever go bad?

In the top of the refrigerator, I have iced tea, mixed berries, and soy milk. I drink soy milk because soy is supposed to be healthy or something. Iced tea is my great addiction. I love unsweetened black iced tea. Those berries are from Whole Foods, and they are ridiculously expensive when you buy them all cut up like that. This does not seem to stop me from buying them. For snacks I have Sargento Chipotle Cheddar cheese sticks. These are amazing, just the right amount of spicy. I also have hard boiled eggs. I love hard boiled eggs, and aren’t the brown eggs pretty? They look so nice, I can’t imagine ever buying plain old white eggs again. In the beverage department, I have a bottle of wine, Sam Adam’s October Fest, pomegranate juice, and lemon flavored sparkling water. I have sparkling water instead of pop because I drink too much pop at work. (That’s right, I said pop, deal!). I like to mix a little of the pomegranate juice and sparkling water together for a healthy bubbly drink. It’s tasty, try it.

The picture above is the only cabinet I have filled with food. I have lots of cans of beans. Beans are very good for you, they have fiber, vitamins, minerals, and antioxidants. Eat more beans. Right now you are probably thinking that I fart a lot. Not really, if you eat beans regularly, your body adjust. Seriously. TMI? You can also see my tea and coffee. The coffee is only for guest, I never make my own coffee, too much work. Below that are my granola bars and nuts. I have a granola bar and soy milk for breakfast everyday, and a handful of nuts every night. Nuts are also very healthy. Eat more nuts. Oh, and on the top shelf is brown rice, sugar, and baking soda.

Finally, here is a small cabinet with some spices and other baking needs. I used to have a lot more spices, but I threw them out when I had my kitchen remodeled. So what do you think? You probably think I’m a little bit of a health nut. Kind of, but not really. A while ago I read the book SuperFoods RX by Steven Pratt. It changed they way I look at food. Instead of trying not too eat too much, now I try to focus more on eating healthy less processed foods. Things like nuts and berries and whole grains. That being said, I still eat out a lot and go to Ted Drew’s almost every week. I’m hoping the good foods will cancel out the bad foods You might also notice that I get a lot of my food at Whole Foods. This is mostly a matter of convenience. I do like Whole Foods, but I mainly go there because I live right behind it. Okay, that is all. If you have a blog, you should blog about what’s in your kitchen. I want to see it

October 12th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | About Me, Good Eats | 4 comments

Six Unspectacular Things About Me

Hey look! I got tagged for a meme! I’m totally one of the cool kids now. Onedadlife and Underthearch tagged me for the “Six Unspectacular Things About Me” meme. I’m a little hurt by the assertion that anything about me is unspectacular, but whatever, I’ll get over it. Let’s begin.

1. My Addiction

Every morning, I go to my neighborhood Starbucks and get a grande coffee. I’d order something fancier like a pumpkin spice latte, but there are a lot of calories in those things, and I try not to drink my calories. I’m a little freaked out by the way the Starbucks employees remember my name and order, but I guess they are trained to do that. Also, the manager of this Starbucks is hot. She’s this cute blond and she wears this black belt with those metal pyramid shaped stud things. It says, “I’m a nice girl, but I have a wild side”. That’s hot. I hope she doesn’t find this blog, that would be embarrassing.

2. My Car

I’m not really a car guy. To me a car is a practical necessity and nothing else. I love my car though. It’s a 2003 Honda Accord Coupe. Woah! The excitement is blowing you away isn’t it? Hey, it’s reliable, gets decent mileage, and I have it set up so that I can listen to my iPod through the stereo system and control it with the steering wheel controls. This makes me happy.

3. My Cat

I’m a cat person. I always have been. I like dogs, but cats are better. They are sleek and somewhat mysterious. Dog’s are easy, they love you no matter what you do. Cat’s are more complicated, they require a little seduction. Also, pound for pound, a cat could kick a dog’s ass any day. My cat’s name is Earl. You might be wondering why he is wearing a scarf and standing next to a purse. He has some gender identity issues, he’s my cat though, and I love him no matter who he is.

4. My Church

This is hard for me to admit, but I’ve gone to church nearly every Sunday since February. Please don’t think that I’m religious, I’m not. Spiritual?, maybe. Here’s my thing. I don’t believe that any religion is the literal truth or that any religion is completely right or wrong. That being said, I also don’t believe that life is just energy and matter interacting, and I believe that there is a deeper level of reality beyond what we can observe. I like my church a lot. It is a United Methodist church in the city with a fairly traditional worship, but the music is better and there is communion with real wine. They don’t require you to believe anything, and it is an open and affirming church (that means gay people are welcome). If you want, you can find out more here.

5. My Underwear

I wear boxer briefs. I think that all guys should. I wore tighty whities for an embarrassingly long time. They are gross and should be outlawed. Boxers provide way too much freedom though. I like things to be a little more secure down there.

6. My Fraternity

I was in a fraternity in college. This is my fraternity at our final blackball meeting during my senior year of college (Spring 1999). To this day, I can’t believe that I was in a fraternity. I’m so not the frat boy type. That being said, it was the time of my life. I love these guys and I would do anything for them. Next weekend, I’ll be back at my college for homecoming and my fraternities 125th anniversary. A lot of guys will be back. It should be a blast. I’ll probably blog about it.

Okay, there you have it. All six unspectacular things about me. It’s a good thing that it wasn’t 7 unspectacular things, because I don’t think I have 7. I’m supposed to tag other people now or something, but I’m not in the mood, and I’m not sure that there is anybody left who reads this blog and hasn’t already been tagged. If you haven’t done this meme yet, do it, do it now. Also, leave a comment so that I know to go read it.

September 28th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | About Me | 4 comments

Probability Is Fun

Do you know what one of my favorite things in the world is? No you don’t, let me tell you. Probability. Once upon a time, I was a math major, and probability was my favorite class. I even tutored this Japanese guy in probability. Come to think of it, I think he failed. Oh well, can’t win ‘em all. For a while, I considered being an actuary. These are the people who spend all day analyzing risk for insurance companies. It would have been hours and hours of endless fun, but I figured I would get more chicks as an engineer. My current job involves a lot of thinking. It’s hard to describe, but there are lots of algorithms to develop, test, and have meetings about. I love my job, but sometimes I worry that all the thinking will make my head explode, so I take short breaks every now and then. What do I do to refresh on these short breaks? Sample problems from the actuarial exam! I am not making this up.

You can learn how to become an actuary at the be an actuary website, and you can find the sample test here and solutions here. Let’s do a sample problem together. It will be fun, I promise. Here is a question from the test:

A tour operator has a bus that can accommodate 20 tourists. The operator knows that tourists may not show up, so he sells 21 tickets. The probability that an individual tourist will not show up is 0.02, independent of all other tourists. Each ticket costs $50, and is non-refundable if a tourist fails to show up. If a tourist shows up and a seat is not available, the tour operator has to pay $100 (ticket cost + $50 penalty) to the tourist. What is the expected revenue of the tour operator?

Break into small groups and discuss this problem. Be prepared to present your solution at the end of this blog post. If you know anything about probability, this is a pretty easy problem to solve. If not, it isn’t so easy. That’s the great thing about probability. It seems hard, but is actually not hard. This is useful for looking smarter than you are.

Let’s solve the problem. I know that the expected value of any situation is the sum of each value multiplied by the probability of that value occurring. First I would like to know the probability of all 21 tourist showing up. This is easy, it’s 0.98²¹, which is about 0.65. This is because you can find the probability of multiple independent events occurring by multiplying the probability of those events together. So there is a 98% chance of any random tourist showing up, and a 65% chance of all 21 tourist who bought tickets showing up. This first time I did this, I calculated the probability as 0.02²¹, which would be the probability of all tourist not showing up. It took me like 2 minutes to figure out what I had done wrong. I’m so dumb.

Now we need to know the probability of 20 or less tourist showing up. We could calculate the probability of every combination of less than 20 tourist showing up and then sum all the probabilities, but that is a lot of work. We know that the sum of the probabilities of all possibilities is 1, and if 21 tourist don’t show up, then 20 or less must have shown up. So the probability of 20 or less tourist showing up is 1-.65, which is .35. So there is a 35% chance that 20 or less tourist will show up.

If 21 tourist show up, the tour operator takes in $950 (21 x $50 is $1050 minus a $100 penalty is $950). If 20 or less tourist show up, the tour operator will take in $1050, because nobody gets a refund. So the expected revenue of the tour operator is 0.65 x $950 + 0.35 x $1050, which is $985. So on average, the tour operator will take in $985 per tour. Do you see a problem here? You should. If the tour operator only sold 20 tickets, he would never have to pay a penalty, and would take in $1000 per tour, which is an average of $15 more per tour. Not only that, he wouldn’t have to ruin some poor tourist’s vacation. What a dumb ass.

Now for a couple editorial comments. There are no such thing as independent events. When somebody says, “assuming independent events”, 90% of the time it is a bad assumption. Think about the problem we just discussed. What are the odds that just one tourist won’t show up? Not likely, because most people don’t go on vacation by themselves, so it is significantly more likely that a group of tourist won’t show. Not only that, if all the tourist show up, one tourist is going to have to miss the tour while the rest of his or her group goes on the tour. I can’t stress this enough, tour operator = jerk. The assumption of independence only works for trivial problems, and real life problems are rarely trivial. Unfortunately, you often have to pretend that events are independent, because doing otherwise is too hard and beyond the scope of this blog.

Another complaint, this whole problem assumes that the tour always sells out. (It must be awesome!) This assumption should really be stated in the problem. Do you hear me actuarial exam problem making people? Also, I assume that this is another bad assumption. As fun as probability is, it is often one bad assumption after another. Probability = life.

Okay, if you are still reading, you must leave a comment. There is something seriously wrong with you, and I will find you help.

The image in this post is Einstein Was Wrong by _mpd_ and is licensed under Creative Commons.

September 27th, 2008 Posted by Rosey | Daily Life | 3 comments

A Case Of The Oranges

I have a case of the oranges. What are the oranges? They are kind of like the blues, but not so much sad, more blah. I call them them the oranges, because I get them on Sunday evenings in the Fall, and orange is the color of Fall. Fall is my least favorite season. I know, I know, this is blasphemy to many of you. You want to say something like: “I love the Fall, the days get shorter, it’s starts to cool down at night, you can start wearing sweaters, football is on TV, and you can have chili for dinner”. I do like chili, but still, I’m not into Fall. In many cultures the seasons represent the cycle of life, and Fall is the season of dying. Okay, I have no idea if that is true or not, but it seems true, and really, isn’t that enough? Here is a list of things I don’t like about Fall:

• Shorter days - I’m a night owl, and I love warm summer evenings. When it gets dark so early and it’s cold outside, I feel stuck indoors. I feel like my day is over before I even get home.

• Sweaters and Long Sleeved Shirts - I have disproportionately long arms for my height (5′11”). I love the look of sweaters, but they don’t fit me. If I raise my arms at all, the sleeves end up working their way half way up my forearms, and then I spend the whole day playing with my sleeves. It’s so annoying.

• The Changing Colors of Leaves - I’m going to get hate mail for this, I know it. See the picture above? Most people think it is beautiful, and it is beautiful in a way, but what I see is dead decaying leaves. I like my leaves bright green and vibrant thank you.

There are things I do like about Fall, like the start of new TV shows, Husker football, and people bringing Halloween candy to work that I am forced to eat against my will. The thing is, I’m a person who loves new beginnings, and Fall is the season of old endings. I love to start new projects and try new things. I’m not a big fan of endings. Fall is like completing a big project or finishing a good book, sure there is the sense of accomplishment, but then you are left with a “Eh, What do I do now?” feeling.

This isn’t a very happy post is it? I’m sorry. Really, I’m a very happy guy. Let me try to end on a positive note. I’m a big believer in balance, Yin and Yang, and all that crap. I absolutely love Spring. It is the best season by far. In order for spring to be so great, the opposite of spring must exist, which is Fall. So Fall isn’t a bad season, it’s just a “temporary seasonal adjustment” that must occur so that we can experience the joys of spring in a few months? I’m not anti-fall, I’m pro-spring.

The image in this post is Fall River Bend by Jim’s Outside Photos, and is licensed under Creative Commons.

September 21st, 2008 Posted by Rosey | About Me | 2 comments